Countdown to Election Day: Trump Leads in a National Pole

According to the ABC News / Washington Post Tracking Poll reported on November 1, 2016, Trump may now be leading in the Presidential Race.

The 2016 Presidential Election has been anything but conventional. I am unsure if any of the polls can predict within a normal margin of error what to expect on election day, especial if they are relying on conventional models. The new poll is a National poll, therefore does not necessarily predict which candidate will capture the required 270 electoral votes (if any).

Click here to see the latest RealClear Politics Electoral College Map

Donald Trump Quiet, Obama’s Approval Rating Soars

Donald Trump is not creating many headlines these days. Obama has enjoyed a nice approval rating bump. As of today 60% of Americans approve of the job he is doing. The death of “Bin Laden” may affect the 2012 election more than Trump. Suddenly people approve of Obama’s handling of the economy, foreign affairs, and other matters of the office: Ap-GFK Poll

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Next up, the U.S. will withdraw troops from the Middle East and give it back to the Taliban and Iran. All the people who helped us and their families will be murdered. America’s foreign policy. Well it starts with the drum beats of war by people, media, Congress, and the President. We then go in and bomb the place to hell. Clean things up a little bit, and then the voters at home get tired with war “over there”. Once we achieve some type of moral victory, we pull out and leave the place for some new “boogie man” to take over. Who gets hurt? The innocent goat farmer and his family. We always lose the end game because we do not have any real leaders in this country. Special interests and mob rule. When corporation no longer benefit and the mob gets tired of something, whether in the long-term interest or not, no Washington D.C. politician will support it. And my rant is over.

So, Donald Trump is no longer on the attack. He is letting Obama have his day in the sun. With some economic indicators, like last Friday’s job report, showing improvement, I wonder if Trump will re-analyze running. Since he would be sure to endure a huge wave of negative publicity, he will not run unless his numbers people say he has a good shot of winning.

His chances will go as the economy goes and I am not alone in this line of thinking

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Good News for Donald Trump in CNN Poll?

In a Poll conducted by CNN, Donald Trump still has a considerable showing with 14% of Republicans showing support. In a Poll with a margin of error of 4.5%, he trailed Mike Huckabee by only 2 points. With Mitt Romney at 13 percent, nobody has really separated themselves as a leader in the field of GOP potential candidates.

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Also according to the poll, 64 percent of Americans have a negative view of Trump. Should Donald Trump decide to run and win the GOP nomination, he will have work to change his public perception after playing to his base by questioning Obama’s citizenship and credentials. This calculated move has yielded results in getting support from Republicans. Republicans are looking for a candidate that is willing to challenge and fight Obama. Trump fits the bill.

According to Trump, he is Obama’s worst nightmare:

Trump’s next major move will likely be to make his official announcement to run and then turn to more substantial issues from a conservative position. He will stress the economy, jobs, and foreign trade policy.
He will likely conservatively support more controversial issues by taking the position that it is not a Federal, but issues of State’s rights.

If jobs and the economy continue to falter and Trump can survive the way of media criticism he will no doubt attract, being branded an outsider and not a career politician could benefit him in the general election.

New Poll Shows Huckabee and Romney, Not Trump, leading GOP National Poll

According to this Fox News Poll, Donald Trump only has 8% support among likely GOP voters in a national poll.

If polls like these keep up, Trump may rethink running. If he decides not to run, I speculate he will posture that his media attention was positive for the 2012 election in that he hopes to draw attention to the ailing economy and the huge trade imbalance with China.

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Trump says he wants to focus on oil, the economy, and jobs. The things most important to the American people right now